I Simulated 100,000 NHL Seasons. No, It’s Not Based on Luck

A recent article in The Conversation made the following claims:

• Hockey is the sport out of the five major U.S. team sports (basketball, football, baseball, hockey, and soccer) where luck plays the biggest role in determining a team’s success.
• A statistical technique called “true score theory” estimates that luck contributes to approximately 53% of an NHL team’s season record.

Moreover, this is largely due to:

• Fewer Scoring Opportunities: A lower number of goals scored per game means lucky bounces have a larger impact on the outcome.
• Random Deflections: Pucks often take unpredictable paths due to deflections off skates, sticks, and the ice itself.
• Difficult to Score: The small size of the net and well-protected goalies make scoring difficult, increasing the influence of random events.

However, only the first of these actually justifies the claim. The latter two paradoxically make luck less of a factor. Also, hockey is surely not…